tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post116044135676932409..comments2023-12-16T16:50:25.810-08:00Comments on The Heart of the Matter: What Now For North Korea?Barry Eislerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17785333622697500192noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1161041729023275982006-10-16T16:35:00.000-07:002006-10-16T16:35:00.000-07:00law dawg fed is right. There is no better way to ...law dawg fed is right. There is no better way to take your mind off your own troubles than to focus your anger on someone else. This is just the begining. Japan could go nuclear in a matter of weeks. Despite the anti-nuke feelings of many of the people there, there are still plenty in power (i.e. the governor of Tokyo) that would not hesitate. With the bomb in Korea, they will have no other choice. We will or can not protect them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1160668095922984912006-10-12T08:48:00.000-07:002006-10-12T08:48:00.000-07:00I don't know how long it's going to take Japan to ...I don't know how long it's going to take Japan to go nuclear, if ever.<BR/><BR/>A lot of Japanese people feel anti-nuke because of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. As a matter of fact these two cities have done much to promote nuke-free Japan and a lot of the a-bomb victims are still alive to talk about the horror they've experienced.<BR/><BR/>Many Japanese people I know expressed uncertainty and fear, but they said they hated the idea of Japan having nuclear weapons more than nuclear North Korea.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1160586611242353262006-10-11T10:10:00.000-07:002006-10-11T10:10:00.000-07:00Barry,Sorry, I did not mean to imply that anyone i...Barry,<BR/><BR/>Sorry, I did not mean to imply that anyone is advocating the starvation of the civilian population of North Korea. The point I was trying to make is that even though the fault lies with Kim, the international community will not turn a blind eye to the suffering and will continue to provide humanitarian aid even though this prolongs the life of the current regime. The best example of this is the sanctions in place against Iraq after the Gulf War. The people of Iraq were starving because of Saddam's regime. Everyone knew this however he was able to use his people's suffering to push the international community to put together the Oil for Food program which succeeded in providing the needed supplies to the Iraqi people but also added to Saddam's coffers. Admittedly there are some major differences between the two situations starting with the fact that the international community appears to be more unified against Kim than they were against the post Gulf War Saddam.<BR/><BR/>Ultimately this test will be the moment historians can point to as the beginning of the end of the current regime in Pyongyang however I think it is going to be a long road with a few more incidents.<BR/><BR/>Hope you're enjoying Japan. I actually just got back from Tokyo and Seoul last week.<BR/><BR/>-- JamesJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01809482520369260824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1160584613994746512006-10-11T09:36:00.000-07:002006-10-11T09:36:00.000-07:00Another informed and provoking analysis of our sit...Another informed and provoking analysis of our situation, Barry. I'm curious, though--based on the current administration's rampant ineptitude, what gives us any hope that they're even capable of "good thinking and sound execution?" I agree with your argument--I'm just not particularly enthused about our chances of a peaceful solution, given our recent foreign policy decisions.<BR/><BR/>On a completely unrelated note, I just finished Rain Fall. I've been interested in checking out your books for awhile, and finally took the plunge. What an adventure it's been! Thanks for the great read--I'm looking forward to many, many more.The Dark Scribehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07185001848318919851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1160518483841884602006-10-10T15:14:00.000-07:002006-10-10T15:14:00.000-07:00Jim, agreed that whether the test was real, succes...Jim, agreed that whether the test was real, successful, a failure, it's a wakeup call to the world. But will the world get out of bed?<BR/><BR/>Zayoi, I agree, the psychology of this interesting; the timing is almost a "you can't ignore me!" message to Japan, China, and South Korea during their weekend summit meetings.<BR/><BR/>James, I'm not sure whether having US forces in South Korea would make it easier for China to attack Taiwan. There are probably advantages to the US in having military facilities and materiel in the region, even if some of them are tied down to deter a North Korean move south.<BR/><BR/>As for "the international community does not have the willpower to starve a population to the point of revolution," I'm not advocating that third parties starve anyone. My point is that if Kim is intent on starving his own people, there's not much we can do about it and it is counterproductive to try. I don't think our refusal to pay aid ransom makes us the ones who are causing the starvation. The Dear Leader deserves full credit for that.Barry Eislerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17785333622697500192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1160506985233622892006-10-10T12:03:00.000-07:002006-10-10T12:03:00.000-07:00Barry,I think you have missed one major factor in ...Barry,<BR/><BR/>I think you have missed one major factor in China's strategic thinking for the region. Having North Korea as a semi-rogue client state serves to lock down a significant portion of the U.S. forces in the Pacific should China decide to solve the Taiwan question via force of arms. Having said that, at times I find myself wondering how serious China is about reclaiming Taiwan. Could it be something that they would like to do but realize they can't and therefore just use it as a paper tiger when dealing with the rest of the world?<BR/><BR/>Besides that I think your analysis is right on however our experience with Iraq between the two Gulf Wars demonstrated that the international community does not have the willpower to starve a population to the point of revolution. The second problem with this plan is that the nuclear test indicates Kim is listening to the more hard line elements in his government. Should a regime change in Pyongyang be the result of sanctions it will most likely be due to a military coup. With the current balance of power in Pyongyang shifting towards the right, the possibility of ending up with a military government that believes they need to enhance their strategic situation is increased. Right now would be prime time for North Korea to invade South Korea as the U.S. would not be able to commit more troops to the region in time to change the outcome of a short-term war which is all the North needs. A push of 100 to 150 miles puts the front south of the Han river valley and the Seoul metropolitan area, which accounts for roughly half the population of South Korea.<BR/><BR/>I do not think this is likely to happen, however China and Russia could use this threat to seek some quid pro quos elsewhere in the world such as Georgia.<BR/><BR/>Cheers!<BR/><BR/>JamesJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01809482520369260824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1160476915028701732006-10-10T03:41:00.000-07:002006-10-10T03:41:00.000-07:00In my opinion i think the entire nuclear debacle i...In my opinion i think the entire nuclear debacle is only a means of getting global attention, mainly America and China. One being anti proliferation of WMD and the other its largest neighbour. As to why he wanted their attention, i am left clueless. I do not believe he have the means to go to war with the world nor does he have much choices left to make. Having this nuclear debacle is sort of like N.Korea's last outcry to the world.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com