tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post115579696275637731..comments2023-12-16T16:50:25.810-08:00Comments on The Heart of the Matter: Israel, Hezbollah, and LebanonBarry Eislerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17785333622697500192noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1155997725348550872006-08-19T07:28:00.000-07:002006-08-19T07:28:00.000-07:00Great analysis, Barry. I hope the optimists are ri...Great analysis, Barry. I hope the optimists are right, too, but I fear the ending lies someplace between the optimists and the nightmarish pessimists.Elizabeth Kreckerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12122785972211597168noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1155844397233661512006-08-17T12:53:00.000-07:002006-08-17T12:53:00.000-07:00Barry,I think that your next-to-closing paragraph ...Barry,<BR/><BR/>I think that your next-to-closing paragraph is actually the most important. <BR/><BR/>While Olmert talked about destroying Hezbollah, Sheikh Nasralla's stated goal was only the survival of his organization, and he certainly achieved that. The implications of the cease fire for Israel's reputed invincibility, which has been central to the calculus of potential conflict in the Middle East for almost 40 years, are glaringly negative. Israel got sucked into - or let themselves get sucked into, depending on whom you ask - a situation that was untenable. <BR/><BR/>The result is that countries that would have, up until recently, kept their mouths shut and any intention to attack Israel under wraps, are already feeling a little more bold. Syria has even started making noise about liberating the Golan Heights, and Palestinians in the West Bank are more than likely feeling confident as well. Things are, in my opinion, going to get worse before they get better.<BR/><BR/>Best,<BR/>Paul<BR/><A HREF="http://sensen-no-sen.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow">Sensen No Sen</A>PBIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05643553811799195520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1155831019997820272006-08-17T09:10:00.000-07:002006-08-17T09:10:00.000-07:00You saw this earlier in the 'war' I hope? I didn't...You saw <A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/28/world/middleeast/28refugees.html?ex=1311739200&en=a7501caa475903a2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss" REL="nofollow">this</A> earlier in the 'war' I hope? I didn't see it picked up anywhere else but the New York Times. Basically - Hezbollah would coopt a neutral town, and shoot any non-Shiites who wanted to bolt:<BR/>“... One woman, who would not give her name because she had a government job and feared retribution, said Hezbollah fighters had killed a man who was trying to leave Bint Jbail. ...”<BR/>I'm not worried about a perceived draw. I'm not worried about Mel Gibson inspired hate parades like we saw in San Francisco. Some will always hate.<BR/>The math here was simple:<BR/>Hezbollah didn't care if their guerillas died along sides their human shields; And they didn't care how much of Northern Israel burned if they could kill Israelis. The public mostly ignored the innocents on the Israeli side. <BR/><BR/>If hostilities do restart - first thing on my list to do is to napalm the <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beqaa_Valley" REL="nofollow">Beqaa Valley</A>. Then bomb the homes of the Syrian Generals. Letting Syria know there is a price to pay would be a good start. <BR/><BR/>I wonder how many folks remember the 9000+ Lebanese massacred by Syria in 1989? - ZPDZenPupDoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11407049268045133817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22165230.post-1155820739349514272006-08-17T06:18:00.000-07:002006-08-17T06:18:00.000-07:00Interesting too that the IDF was not able to achie...Interesting too that the IDF was not able to achieve its so publicly stated goals. One wonders what impact that may well have, both inside Israel, and out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com