Saturday, February 22, 2020

Why Biden is Down and Sanders is Up

A theory:

A year ago, Biden was polling nationally in first place. But a significant amount of his support was coming from people who supported him because of a belief in his “electability.” As soon as the myth of Biden’s electability was punctured, the bubble burst, and Biden’s polling numbers collapsed.

Sanders is the opposite phenomenon. For substantive reasons, a lot of people wanted to support Sanders, but hesitated because they were afraid he wasn’t sufficiently electable. And as Sanders began to raise unprecedented amounts of money from small-dollar donations, rise in the polls, perform strongly in debates, and win the popular vote in Iowa and then in New Hampshire, people who previously doubted his electability began to support him.

If I’m right about this phenomenon, Sanders is only at the beginning of a virtuous cycle. His massive win in Nevada—despite all establishment attempts to stop him—is going to draw even more supporters who had previously hesitated because of electability concerns. And as electability concerns are increasingly replaced by a belief that “Sanders could actually win this,” and as “Sanders could actually win this” is replaced by “Sanders is going to win this,” he is going to become unstoppable, no matter how much the Democratic establishment and the establishment media throws at him.

Of course I could be wrong; having watched innumerable television “experts” humiliate themselves prognosticating, it’s best to be humble about how much one might be missing.

But at this point, this is how I see it.

By the way, I got some of the idea for this post by a fascinating business book I read years ago—Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers—about how a new technology first attracts early adopters before crossing over to mass-market appeal.

9 comments:

Don Bay said...

Dear Barry:

I'd support Sanders for president in a heartbeat. The question is WILL HE WIN?

Don Bay

E-mail: drbay55@gmail.com or don.bay@comhem.se

Website: DeBaytable.com

Barry Eisler said...

Hi Don, of course no one can know for sure. But I'd recommend this article, which I found persuasive:

https://jacobinmag.com/2019/12/bernie-sanders-vs-donald-trump

Don Bay said...

I read the articles and agree that Sanders is the guy to stop. Unfortunately, Biden may be the nominee. The status quo will win again.

Sincerely,
Don Bay

E-mail: drbay55@gmail.com or don.bay@comhem.se

Website: DeBaytable.com

Don Bay said...

I read the articles. I agree that Sanders might win, but that'll make Hillary Clinton sad because she prefers Biden, a status quo guy if there ever was one.

Sincerely,

Don Bay

E-mail: drbay55@gmail.com or don.bay@comhem.se

Website: DeBaytable.com

Don Bay said...

Hi, Barry:

I read Jacobin articles and agree. If Sanders is the nominee, Hillary Clinton will be upset because Biden is her status quo buddy. Biden's likely to name a billionaire as his running mate, but given Sanders' intelligence, he'll name a woman of color. Stacey Abrams and Michelle Obama come to mind.

By the way, your sites' CAPTYA pictures are so small and fuzzy that I have to press my nose close to the screen to even see the images. Can you ask them to do something about the problem?

Sincerely,

Don Bay

E-mail: drbay55@gmail.com (or don.bay@comhem.se)

Website: DeBaytable.com

Don Bay said...

Hi, Barry:

I read the Jacobin articles and agree. Assuming Sanders is the nominee, Hillary Clinton will be angry because Biden is a status quo guy. He might even name a billionaire as his running mate. However, Sanders' intelligence will lead him to name a woman of color as his running mate. Stacey Abrams and Michelle Obama come to mind.

By the way, your sites' CAPTYA is so small and fuzzy that I have to get close to the screen and even then I might miss it.

Sincerely,

Don Bay

E-mail: drbay55@gmail.com (or don.bay@comhem.se)

Website: DeBaytable.com

Don Bay said...

Hi, Barry:

I read the Jacobin articles and agree. Assuming Sanders is the nominee, Hillary Clinton will be angry because Biden is a status quo guy. He might even name a billionaire as his running mate. However, Sanders' intelligence will lead him to name a woman of color as his running mate. Stacey Abrams and Michelle Obama come to mind.

By the way, your sites' CAPTYA is so small and fuzzy that I have to get close to the screen and even then I might miss it.

Sincerely,

Don Bay

E-mail: drbay55@gmail.com (or don.bay@comhem.se)

Website: DeBaytable.com

Don Bay said...

Hi, Barry:

I read the Jacobin articles and agree. Assuming Sanders is the nominee, Hillary Clinton will be angry because Biden is a status quo guy. He might even name a billionaire as his running mate. However, Sanders' intelligence will lead him to name a woman of color as his running mate. Stacey Abrams and Michelle Obama come to mind.

By the way, your sites' CAPTYA is so small and fuzzy that I have to get close to the screen and even then I might miss it.

Sincerely,

Don Bay

E-mail: drbay55@gmail.com (or don.bay@comhem.se)

Website: DeBaytable.com

Barry Eisler said...

Hi Don, it shows up clearly on my browser and I haven't had any complaints. Beyond which...I'm not sure how to change it!